http://thediplomat.com/2014/
PLA Officer: China Must Establish South China Sea ADIZ
A Chinese military officer has said that establishing a South China Sea ADIZ is necessary to China’s national interest.
Zachary Keck
February 22, 2014
A senior researcher and officer in China’s People’s Liberation Army said that establishing an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) is essential to China’s national interest.
“The establishment of another ADIZ over the South China Sea is necessary for China’s long-term national interest,” Senior Colonel Li Jie, a researcher at the PLA Navy’s Military Academy and frequent media commentator, said on Friday, according to a report in Reuters.
Li’s comment seemed to be slightly inconsistent with a statement from China’s Foreign Ministry back in February, which dismissed Japanese media reports that said China was preparing to establish a South China Sea ADIZ. That statement, however, seemed to leave open the possibility that China might do so in the future.
When initially announcing its East China Sea ADIZ, Chinese officials readily admitted that they intended to establish other ADIZ over other areas in the future.
Li’s remark came in the context of a discussion about remarks made by U.S. Captain James Fanell, director of intelligence and information operations at the US Pacific Fleet. As The Diplomat previously reported, at a recent U.S. Naval Institute conference Capt. Fanell said that the PLA had held a drill to practice defeating Japan’s Maritime Self Defense Forces in the East China Sea as a prelude to seizing the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands.
In that same speech (see video below) Fanell also predicted that China would establish an ADIZ in the South China Sea by 2015 at the latest. Li characterized this remark as America’s attempt to deter China from establishing a South China Sea ADIZ.
On Thursday, however, the Pentagon distanced itself from Fanell’s remarks, with Pentagon spokesperson Rear Admiral John Kirby saying that “those were his views to express.” Kirby continued: “What I can tell you about what Secretary Hagel believes is that we all continue to believe that the peaceful prosperous rise of China is a good thing for the region, for the world. We continue to want to improve our bilateral military relations with China.” Indeed, Army Chief of Staff Ray Odierno is currently in China meeting his PLA counterpart.
Li said that the Pentagon’s decision to distance itself from Fanell’s comments was a tactical move on the part of the U.S. “It’s a typical U.S. diplomatic strategy,” Li said, according to Reuters. “Washington is very concerned about the tension developing in the South China Sea, which will relate to its strategic interests.”
It’s worth noting that Rear Admiral Kirby distancing the Pentagon from Fanell’s remarks was likely referring in particular to the latter’s comments about China’s military forces training to defeat Japan’s MSDF in the East China Sea.
Fanell’s remark about China’s interest in establishing a South China Sea ADIZ was much less controversial and in fact broadly consistent with the comments made by numerous senior officials in recent months. As far back as last December, Secretary of State John Kerry stated: “Today, I raised our deep concerns about China’s announcement of an East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone…. The zone should not be implemented, and China should refrain from taking similar unilateral actions elsewhere in the region, and particularly over the South China Sea.”
Here’s a video of the panel in which Capt. Fanell made his blunt assessment. Fanell begins speaking around the 19:00 minute mark, right after The Diplomat’s own Naval Diplomat gives his remarks, which we republished here.
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http://thediplomat.com/2014/
By Carl Thayer
February 19, 2014
Over the last month and a half, seven significant developments indicate that tensions in the South China Sea are set to rise in both the short and long term. The five short-term trends include: Philippine defiance of China’s fishing ban; continued inaction by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN); the Chinese navy’s repeated assertions of sovereignty over James Shoal; the possibility of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the South China Sea; and stronger United States opposition to China’s ADIZ and maritime territorial claims.
First, in January, the Philippines stepped up its public defiance of China and its territorial claims in the South China Sea. On January 15, Emmanuel Bautista, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, stated in a television interview with respect to new fishing regulations issued by Hainan province that Filipino fisherman should not give in to threats or intimidation. A day later, Secretary of Defense Voltaire Gazmin stated that the Philippines would disregard Hainan province’s new fishing regulations and would provide escorts to Filipino fishermen in the West Philippines Sea “if necessary.”
On January 17, the local media published aerial reconnaissance photographs taken at Ayungin Shoal (Second Thomas Reef) on August 28, 2013. The photographs showed the presence of two People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) warships, including a frigate, and a Coast Guard vessel. The press quoted from a confidential government report that stated the Chinese naval presence “could be part [of] a renewed and possibly more determined effort to remove Philippine military presence on Ayungin Shoal and from the whole Spratly island group.”
On February 4, President Benigno Aquino in an interview with The New York Times called on the international community to lend its support to resist China’s claims in the South China Sea.
Second, the ASEAN Foreign Ministers held a Retreat in Bagan, Myanmar from January 16-17. Philippines Secretary of Foreign Affairs Albert del Rosario called on ASEAN to “maintain regional solidarity” in response to China’s imposition of an ADIZ and new fishing regulations in the South China Sea.
“Clearly, in addition to unilateral measures to change the status quo and threats to the stability of the region,” del Rosario stated, “these latest developments violate the legitimate rights of coastal and other states under international law, including UNCLOS, and more specifically the principles of freedom of navigation and overflight, and is contrary to the ASEAN-China Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.”
The ASEAN Ministers “expressed their concerns on the recent developments in the South China Sea. They further reaffirmed ASEAN’s Six-Point Principles on the South China Sea and the importance of maintaining peace and stability, maritime security, freedom of navigation in and overflight above the South China Sea.”
The ministers repeated ASEAN’s standard line that all disputes should be resolved by peaceful means in accordance with international law and that all parties should show “self-restraint in the conduct of activities.” The ministers declined to be specific and took no further action.
Third, on January 20 a PLAN flotilla comprising three ships, the Amphibious Landing Craft Changbaishan, and two destroyers, Wuhan and Haikou, left the naval base on Hainan to commence annual naval exercises in the South China Sea. The flotilla first conducted drills off the Paracel islands including amphibious landings “on every reef guarded by China’s navy,” according to the commander of the flotilla.
The flotilla then sailed south to the Spratly islands. On January 26 the Chinese media reported that when the ships reached James Shoal eighty kilometers off Sarawak, PLAN sailors conducted an oath taking ceremony vowing to safeguard China’s sovereignty and maritime interests.
The following day Qin Gang, a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry, reiterated China’s “indisputable sovereignty” over James Shoal.
However, when Admiral Tan Sri Abdul Aziz Jaafar, the Chief of the Malaysian Navy, was interviewed by the New Straits Times on January 29 about the PLAN activities at James Shoal, he denied they took place.
According to Admiral Aziz, “There has been no act of provocation on the part of the Chinese or threat to our sovereignty as they are conducting their exercises in international waters” one-thousand kilometers away. Admiral Aziz was apparently referring to naval exercises conducted previously by the aircraft carrier Liaoning and its escorts.
This is the second time in two years that PLAN warships have visited James Shoal to assert Chinese sovereignty claims. On both occasions Malaysian authorities have denied any knowledge of Chinese activities. This raises questions about the veracity of Malaysian accounts, deficiencies in Malaysia’s maritime domain awareness capacity, or whether Malaysia ordered its navy out of the area to avoid any incident.
Fourth, the Asahi Shimbun reported on January 31 that a draft ADIZ for the South China Sea had been drawn up by air force officers at the working level at the Air Force Command College and submitted to the government in May 2013. The draft ADIZ reportedly covers the Paracel islands and some of the South China Sea. The Japanese report stated that Chinese officials were still deliberating on the extent of the ADIZ and the timing of the announcement.
Immediately after the Asahi Shimbun report was published it was dismissed by China’s Foreign Ministry. A spokesperson declared “generally speaking, China does not feel there is an air security threat from ASEAN countries” and therefore does not feel a need for an ADIZ.
It should be recalled, however, that in November last year when China announced its ADIZ in the East China Sea, a Ministry of National Defense spokesperson affirmed that “China will establish other Air Defense Identification Zones at the right moment after necessary preparations are completed.”
Fifth, in February, high-level United States officials became more assertive in opposing China’s ADIZ and territorial claims in the South China Sea. For example, on February 1, Evan Medeiros, Director for Asia at the National Security Council, stated in an interview, “We oppose China’s establishment of an ADIZ in other areas, including the South China Sea. We have been very clear with the Chinese that we would see that as a provocative and destabilizing development that would result in changes in our presence and military posture in the region.”
On February 5, Daniel Russel, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, stated in testimony to the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific that China should refrain from establishing other ADIZs in the region.
Russel also said, “any use of the ‘nine-dash line’ by China to claim maritime rights not based on claimed land features would be inconsistent with international law” and that China’s “pattern of behavior in the South China Sea reflects an incremental effort by China to assert control over the area contained in the so-called ‘nine-dash line’.”
Finally, Russel provided the strongest U.S. endorsement of the Philippines’ action in taking its territorial dispute with China to arbitration. Assistant Secretary Russel, “We fully support the right of claimants to exercise rights they may have to avail themselves of peaceful dispute settlement mechanisms. The Philippines chose to exercise such a right last year with the filing of an arbitration case under the Law of the Sea Convention.”
The two long-term trends include new U.S. assessments of the future balance of power in the Asia-Pacific and continued Chinese maritime modernization.
During January and February, three high-level U.S. officials proffered sober assessments of the changing balance of power in the Western Pacific.
On January 15, Admiral Samuel Locklear, Commander U.S. Pacific Command, was quoted by Defense News as stating, “our historic dominance that most of us… have enjoyed is diminishing, no question.” Admiral Locklear was referring to the rise of China’s naval power that would take time to eventuate. He concluded, “That’s not something to be afraid of, it’s just to be pragmatic about.”
In late January, Frank Kendall, Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology, stated that U.S. military technological superiority is being “challenged in ways that I have not seen for decades, particularly in the Asia-Pacific Region.” He cited China’s military modernization and shrinking U.S. defense budgets as the main causes.
On February 4, James Clapper, Director of National Intelligence told a hearing of the House Intelligence Committee with respect to China, “They’ve been quite aggressive about asserting what they believe is their manifest destiny, if you will, in that part of the world. “ Clapper noted that China’s “very impressive military modernization” was designed to address what China views as U.S. military strengths.
According to testimony by the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) to the U.S. China Economic and Security Review on January 30, “The Chinese navy has ambitious plans over the next 15 years to rapidly advance its fleet of surface ships and submarines as well as maritime weapons and sensors.” The ONI reported that China laid down, launched or commissioned more than 50 naval ships in 2013 with a similar number planned for this year.
At the same time, it was reported that China has begun construction a second aircraft carrier which it hopes to launch in 2018. Security analysts believe that China plans to operate a carrier battle group in the “far seas” by 2020. There were also reports that China was building a hypersonic missile capable of penetrating the U.S. missile defense system.
In an analysis released in early February, IHS Jane’s estimated that China’s defense spending would reach nearly $160 billion in 2015, up from $139 billion spent in 2013. According to Deputy Undersecretary Kendall, “Overall, China’s military investments are increasing in double-digit numbers each year, about 10 percent.”
China continued to make similar advances on the paramilitary front. On January 10, a new 5,000 tonne ship was commissioned into China Coast Guard South Sea Fleet and stationed at Sansha City on Woody island in the Paracels. The China Ocean News reported on January 21 that the new vessel would commence regular patrols in the South China Sea to protect China’s maritime interests and provide a “speedy, orderly and effective emergency response to sudden incidents at sea.” Also on the same day, the Global Times and Beijing Times reported that China was building a 10,000-ton marine surveillance ship, the largest of its kind in the world.
Current short-term and long-term security trends appear likely to exacerbate tensions over territorial disputes in the South China Sea. The Philippines continues to engage in a war of words with China, while China continues to invest in Second Thomas Reef by stationing warships in the area. Differences in approach between the Philippines and Malaysia make it unlikely the four claimant states can reach a common position for ASEAN to endorse. ASEAN itself appears unable to reach a consensus that Chinese fishing bans in the South China Sea, coupled with the possible imposition of a Chinese ADIZ, are security issues affecting the whole of Southeast Asia.
China is continuing its build-up and modernization of both PLAN warships and paramilitary Coast Guard vessels. The former continue to conduct military exercises in areas where China’s nine-dash line overlaps with the Exclusive Economic Zones of claimant states. The latter are increasing in size thus enabling them to patrol and remain on station in the South China Sea for longer periods.
The current proactive U.S. challenge to China’s nine-dash line claim and opposition to any ADIZ in the South China Sea is likely to meet Chinese political, diplomatic and possibly military resistance in the form of challenges in contested waters. In the long-term, China’s naval modernization and expansion will result in the relative decline of U.S. naval primacy in the Western Pacific.
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http://thediplomat.com/2014/
Shannon TiezziFebruary 25, 2014
China’s increased military and maritime surveillance activities in the South China Sea have been well-documented, both by foreign and Chinese media outlets. But China’s push to assert its claims over islands within the South China Sea is not simply unfolding in the military realm — the increased naval activities are backed by a renewed focus within the academic community.
A recent article in China Daily highlighted one such organization, the Collaborative Innovation Center for South China Sea Studies (CICSCSS), based at Nanjing University. The Center was established in 2012 as one of 14 national research projects prioritized by the central government. According to Hong Yinxing, the chairman of the board for the center as well as the Party chief for Nanjing University, the center was designed to promote comprehensive study of maritime issues in the region, crossing barriers between academic departments, the military, and other government agencies. “The center will become a high-end think tank for South China Sea policymaking, a dialogue platform for international communication, and a training center for outstanding talents on maritime affairs,” Hong told China Daily.
Nanjing University is not alone in promoting study on South China Sea issues. The National Institute for South China Sea Studies (NISCSS), located in Hainan province, is affiliated with China’s Foreign Ministry and State Oceanic Administration. Founded in 1996, the institute has been upgraded and expanded in the past decade to reflect China’s growing will and ability to promote its claims in the South China Sea. NISCSS’s areas of interest include the history and geography of the South China Sea (with a special focus on sovereignty), the area’s geopolitics (including neighboring countries’ South China Sea policies), and the applicability of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea to the region’s territorial disputes. The NISCSS recently recommended that Taiwan and China work together on research projects to bolster their sovereignty claims in the South China Sea.
China’s elite foreign policy think tanks are also carrying out their own research. The China Institute of International Studies is currently sponsoring a project on how China should respond to international arbitration over the South China Sea. Experts from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences routinely appear in media articles to present academic arguments for China’s sovereignty over and actions near the South China Sea islands. Plus, as maritime issues grow in regional importance, more general articles on subjects from Asia-Pacific regional security to U.S.-China relations have to include research and/or policy recommendations on handling the sovereignty disputes.
The result has been a government-sponsored boom in South China Sea issues in China’s academic and policymaking community. In addition to publishing research specifically designed to back China’s historical claims, think tanks specializing on the South China Sea have a broader goal. The China Daily article pointed out a “national shortage of qualified maritime-affairs personnel skilled in international dialogue and cooperation.” Research organizations like CICSCSS and NISCSS are important training grounds for Chinese experts who will not only help Beijing formulate South China Sea policy, but will also be tasked with arguing China’s maritime claims internationally. Think of it as a soft-power push for control of the South China Sea. Beijing wants to have scholars trained not just in the history of China’s activity in the South China Sea, but in maritime law, foreign policy, and military affairs.
To date, China’s soft power campaigns to promote its territorial claims have been clumsy. In 2012, for example, the state run China Daily took out a two-page advertisement in the New York Times and Washington Post with a headline proclaiming “Diaoyu Islands Belong to China.” Such heavy-handed tactics are far more likely to backfire than to convince American audiences.
The growth of Chinese think tanks specializing on South China Sea issues hints at a more sophisticated long-term strategy. The goal is to have Chinese experts who can argue for China’s claims based not only on history, but on international law. As China’s academics hit the books to present arguments for de jure sovereignty, the Chinese military and Coast Guard will continue their stepped-up patrols of the region to assert de facto control of disputed areas. Anyone arguing that the military apparatus is acting of its own accord is ignoring the parallel increase in China’s academic battles. Beijing is implementing a multi-pronged strategy to assert its claims to the South China Sea, and academia is one of the battlegrounds.
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http://www.philstar.comheadlines/2014/02/25/1294260/
By Marichu Villanueva (The Philippine Star) | Updated February 25, 2014 -
MANILA, Philippines - The United States is committed to fulfill its obligations under the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with the Philippines even as there is full support for diplomatic resolution of territorial disputes with China and other claimant countries in the South China Sea.
Adm. Harry Harris Jr., commander of the US Pacific Fleet, reiterated this commitment yesterday as he met with Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief Gen. Emmanuel Bautista and Philippine Navy commander Jose Luis Alano.
The reiteration of US commitment came a few days after Adm. Jonathan Greenert, naval operations chief of the US Navy, made a statement that stirred some controversy. Greenert was quoted as telling a military academic discussion about the 1951 MDT being implemented in case of Chinese aggression in the contested Pagasa islands in the West Philippine Sea.
“Greenert reiterated the strength of the Mutual Defense Treaty. He reaffirmed the US commitment to the Philippines with the Mutual Defense Treaty and I agree with that completely,” Harris stressed, quickly adding: “And I want to underscore the US-Philippine treaty obligations and we live up to that obligation.”
Harris arrived in Manila Sunday night. He met yesterday with Philippine military officials before he left last night.
In an exclusive interview with The STAR, Harris underscored the important role that the Philippines plays in Asia.
“What makes the Philippines, from our perspective, is it’s a full treaty partner,” Harris pointed out.
Currently, he cited, the US only has seven bilateral treaties worldwide and one of them is the MDT with the Philippines. “But the Philippines is a leader in Asia,” he added.
Harris also reiterated there is no talk about renewing the abrogated Philippine-US military bases agreement in the ongoing discussions for rotational visits by US forces.
“We are not going to base anything in the Philippines. This is about access and use of Philippine facilities in order to work together,” he stressed. “Whatever the Philippine government wants US to have - this is part of the agreement that is being negotiated.”
President Aquino earlier disclosed the Philippines is “very close” to completing an agreement to boost the number of US troops allowed into the country at a time of growing tension over territorial disputes with China.
“We applaud the recent action of the Philippine government to moderate Chinese behavior for international venues as a means in resolving dispute… This is a mark of a mature nation to resolve this dispute diplomatically and not with coercion but other peaceful means,” Harris stressed.
He was referring to the international arbitration court at the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) where the Philippines has taken its territorial dispute with Beijing on the South China Sea.
On the part of the US, Harris said continuing military-to-military talks with Chinese officials are also being done. He cited the talks of US Army chief of staff Gen. Raymond Odierno, who met with his Chinese counterpart Lt. Gen. Wang Ninga a few days ago in Beijing, as well as the recent visit to China by US vice chief of operations Adm. Mark Fergusson, who met with Adm. Wu Sheng-li, chief of China Navy.
“I am hoping that we continue to have a strong military to military relationship with China over the next years, with openness and not shrouded with opaqueness,” Harris said.
“On the other hand, we want to have strong and positive relationship with China. Gen. Odierno’s visit to Chiba is indicative of that,” the admiral pointed out.
The US Pacific Commander admitted, however, the US views with concern the lack of transparency of China, especially with its recent unilateral decision to impose the controversial air defense identification zone (ADIZ).
When he assumed his post last October, Harris said there was no change in their operations even after China announced the ADIZ.
“As far as the US Navy operations go, we are conducting our operations at sea and in the air through and in the so-called Chinese identification zone without respect for the zone itself. Business as before,” he declared. – With Pia Lee Brago.
PLA Officer: China Must Establish South China Sea ADIZ
A Chinese military officer has said that establishing a South China Sea ADIZ is necessary to China’s national interest.
Zachary Keck
February 22, 2014
A senior researcher and officer in China’s People’s Liberation Army said that establishing an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) is essential to China’s national interest.
“The establishment of another ADIZ over the South China Sea is necessary for China’s long-term national interest,” Senior Colonel Li Jie, a researcher at the PLA Navy’s Military Academy and frequent media commentator, said on Friday, according to a report in Reuters.
Li’s comment seemed to be slightly inconsistent with a statement from China’s Foreign Ministry back in February, which dismissed Japanese media reports that said China was preparing to establish a South China Sea ADIZ. That statement, however, seemed to leave open the possibility that China might do so in the future.
When initially announcing its East China Sea ADIZ, Chinese officials readily admitted that they intended to establish other ADIZ over other areas in the future.
Li’s remark came in the context of a discussion about remarks made by U.S. Captain James Fanell, director of intelligence and information operations at the US Pacific Fleet. As The Diplomat previously reported, at a recent U.S. Naval Institute conference Capt. Fanell said that the PLA had held a drill to practice defeating Japan’s Maritime Self Defense Forces in the East China Sea as a prelude to seizing the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands.
In that same speech (see video below) Fanell also predicted that China would establish an ADIZ in the South China Sea by 2015 at the latest. Li characterized this remark as America’s attempt to deter China from establishing a South China Sea ADIZ.
On Thursday, however, the Pentagon distanced itself from Fanell’s remarks, with Pentagon spokesperson Rear Admiral John Kirby saying that “those were his views to express.” Kirby continued: “What I can tell you about what Secretary Hagel believes is that we all continue to believe that the peaceful prosperous rise of China is a good thing for the region, for the world. We continue to want to improve our bilateral military relations with China.” Indeed, Army Chief of Staff Ray Odierno is currently in China meeting his PLA counterpart.
Li said that the Pentagon’s decision to distance itself from Fanell’s comments was a tactical move on the part of the U.S. “It’s a typical U.S. diplomatic strategy,” Li said, according to Reuters. “Washington is very concerned about the tension developing in the South China Sea, which will relate to its strategic interests.”
It’s worth noting that Rear Admiral Kirby distancing the Pentagon from Fanell’s remarks was likely referring in particular to the latter’s comments about China’s military forces training to defeat Japan’s MSDF in the East China Sea.
Fanell’s remark about China’s interest in establishing a South China Sea ADIZ was much less controversial and in fact broadly consistent with the comments made by numerous senior officials in recent months. As far back as last December, Secretary of State John Kerry stated: “Today, I raised our deep concerns about China’s announcement of an East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone…. The zone should not be implemented, and China should refrain from taking similar unilateral actions elsewhere in the region, and particularly over the South China Sea.”
Here’s a video of the panel in which Capt. Fanell made his blunt assessment. Fanell begins speaking around the 19:00 minute mark, right after The Diplomat’s own Naval Diplomat gives his remarks, which we republished here.
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http://thediplomat.com/2014/
Tensions Set To Rise In The South China Sea
A series of recent events points to a declining state of stability and security in the South China Sea.By Carl Thayer
February 19, 2014
Over the last month and a half, seven significant developments indicate that tensions in the South China Sea are set to rise in both the short and long term. The five short-term trends include: Philippine defiance of China’s fishing ban; continued inaction by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN); the Chinese navy’s repeated assertions of sovereignty over James Shoal; the possibility of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the South China Sea; and stronger United States opposition to China’s ADIZ and maritime territorial claims.
First, in January, the Philippines stepped up its public defiance of China and its territorial claims in the South China Sea. On January 15, Emmanuel Bautista, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, stated in a television interview with respect to new fishing regulations issued by Hainan province that Filipino fisherman should not give in to threats or intimidation. A day later, Secretary of Defense Voltaire Gazmin stated that the Philippines would disregard Hainan province’s new fishing regulations and would provide escorts to Filipino fishermen in the West Philippines Sea “if necessary.”
On January 17, the local media published aerial reconnaissance photographs taken at Ayungin Shoal (Second Thomas Reef) on August 28, 2013. The photographs showed the presence of two People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) warships, including a frigate, and a Coast Guard vessel. The press quoted from a confidential government report that stated the Chinese naval presence “could be part [of] a renewed and possibly more determined effort to remove Philippine military presence on Ayungin Shoal and from the whole Spratly island group.”
On February 4, President Benigno Aquino in an interview with The New York Times called on the international community to lend its support to resist China’s claims in the South China Sea.
Second, the ASEAN Foreign Ministers held a Retreat in Bagan, Myanmar from January 16-17. Philippines Secretary of Foreign Affairs Albert del Rosario called on ASEAN to “maintain regional solidarity” in response to China’s imposition of an ADIZ and new fishing regulations in the South China Sea.
“Clearly, in addition to unilateral measures to change the status quo and threats to the stability of the region,” del Rosario stated, “these latest developments violate the legitimate rights of coastal and other states under international law, including UNCLOS, and more specifically the principles of freedom of navigation and overflight, and is contrary to the ASEAN-China Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.”
The ASEAN Ministers “expressed their concerns on the recent developments in the South China Sea. They further reaffirmed ASEAN’s Six-Point Principles on the South China Sea and the importance of maintaining peace and stability, maritime security, freedom of navigation in and overflight above the South China Sea.”
The ministers repeated ASEAN’s standard line that all disputes should be resolved by peaceful means in accordance with international law and that all parties should show “self-restraint in the conduct of activities.” The ministers declined to be specific and took no further action.
Third, on January 20 a PLAN flotilla comprising three ships, the Amphibious Landing Craft Changbaishan, and two destroyers, Wuhan and Haikou, left the naval base on Hainan to commence annual naval exercises in the South China Sea. The flotilla first conducted drills off the Paracel islands including amphibious landings “on every reef guarded by China’s navy,” according to the commander of the flotilla.
The flotilla then sailed south to the Spratly islands. On January 26 the Chinese media reported that when the ships reached James Shoal eighty kilometers off Sarawak, PLAN sailors conducted an oath taking ceremony vowing to safeguard China’s sovereignty and maritime interests.
The following day Qin Gang, a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry, reiterated China’s “indisputable sovereignty” over James Shoal.
However, when Admiral Tan Sri Abdul Aziz Jaafar, the Chief of the Malaysian Navy, was interviewed by the New Straits Times on January 29 about the PLAN activities at James Shoal, he denied they took place.
According to Admiral Aziz, “There has been no act of provocation on the part of the Chinese or threat to our sovereignty as they are conducting their exercises in international waters” one-thousand kilometers away. Admiral Aziz was apparently referring to naval exercises conducted previously by the aircraft carrier Liaoning and its escorts.
This is the second time in two years that PLAN warships have visited James Shoal to assert Chinese sovereignty claims. On both occasions Malaysian authorities have denied any knowledge of Chinese activities. This raises questions about the veracity of Malaysian accounts, deficiencies in Malaysia’s maritime domain awareness capacity, or whether Malaysia ordered its navy out of the area to avoid any incident.
Fourth, the Asahi Shimbun reported on January 31 that a draft ADIZ for the South China Sea had been drawn up by air force officers at the working level at the Air Force Command College and submitted to the government in May 2013. The draft ADIZ reportedly covers the Paracel islands and some of the South China Sea. The Japanese report stated that Chinese officials were still deliberating on the extent of the ADIZ and the timing of the announcement.
Immediately after the Asahi Shimbun report was published it was dismissed by China’s Foreign Ministry. A spokesperson declared “generally speaking, China does not feel there is an air security threat from ASEAN countries” and therefore does not feel a need for an ADIZ.
It should be recalled, however, that in November last year when China announced its ADIZ in the East China Sea, a Ministry of National Defense spokesperson affirmed that “China will establish other Air Defense Identification Zones at the right moment after necessary preparations are completed.”
Fifth, in February, high-level United States officials became more assertive in opposing China’s ADIZ and territorial claims in the South China Sea. For example, on February 1, Evan Medeiros, Director for Asia at the National Security Council, stated in an interview, “We oppose China’s establishment of an ADIZ in other areas, including the South China Sea. We have been very clear with the Chinese that we would see that as a provocative and destabilizing development that would result in changes in our presence and military posture in the region.”
On February 5, Daniel Russel, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, stated in testimony to the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific that China should refrain from establishing other ADIZs in the region.
Russel also said, “any use of the ‘nine-dash line’ by China to claim maritime rights not based on claimed land features would be inconsistent with international law” and that China’s “pattern of behavior in the South China Sea reflects an incremental effort by China to assert control over the area contained in the so-called ‘nine-dash line’.”
Finally, Russel provided the strongest U.S. endorsement of the Philippines’ action in taking its territorial dispute with China to arbitration. Assistant Secretary Russel, “We fully support the right of claimants to exercise rights they may have to avail themselves of peaceful dispute settlement mechanisms. The Philippines chose to exercise such a right last year with the filing of an arbitration case under the Law of the Sea Convention.”
The two long-term trends include new U.S. assessments of the future balance of power in the Asia-Pacific and continued Chinese maritime modernization.
During January and February, three high-level U.S. officials proffered sober assessments of the changing balance of power in the Western Pacific.
On January 15, Admiral Samuel Locklear, Commander U.S. Pacific Command, was quoted by Defense News as stating, “our historic dominance that most of us… have enjoyed is diminishing, no question.” Admiral Locklear was referring to the rise of China’s naval power that would take time to eventuate. He concluded, “That’s not something to be afraid of, it’s just to be pragmatic about.”
In late January, Frank Kendall, Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology, stated that U.S. military technological superiority is being “challenged in ways that I have not seen for decades, particularly in the Asia-Pacific Region.” He cited China’s military modernization and shrinking U.S. defense budgets as the main causes.
On February 4, James Clapper, Director of National Intelligence told a hearing of the House Intelligence Committee with respect to China, “They’ve been quite aggressive about asserting what they believe is their manifest destiny, if you will, in that part of the world. “ Clapper noted that China’s “very impressive military modernization” was designed to address what China views as U.S. military strengths.
According to testimony by the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) to the U.S. China Economic and Security Review on January 30, “The Chinese navy has ambitious plans over the next 15 years to rapidly advance its fleet of surface ships and submarines as well as maritime weapons and sensors.” The ONI reported that China laid down, launched or commissioned more than 50 naval ships in 2013 with a similar number planned for this year.
At the same time, it was reported that China has begun construction a second aircraft carrier which it hopes to launch in 2018. Security analysts believe that China plans to operate a carrier battle group in the “far seas” by 2020. There were also reports that China was building a hypersonic missile capable of penetrating the U.S. missile defense system.
In an analysis released in early February, IHS Jane’s estimated that China’s defense spending would reach nearly $160 billion in 2015, up from $139 billion spent in 2013. According to Deputy Undersecretary Kendall, “Overall, China’s military investments are increasing in double-digit numbers each year, about 10 percent.”
China continued to make similar advances on the paramilitary front. On January 10, a new 5,000 tonne ship was commissioned into China Coast Guard South Sea Fleet and stationed at Sansha City on Woody island in the Paracels. The China Ocean News reported on January 21 that the new vessel would commence regular patrols in the South China Sea to protect China’s maritime interests and provide a “speedy, orderly and effective emergency response to sudden incidents at sea.” Also on the same day, the Global Times and Beijing Times reported that China was building a 10,000-ton marine surveillance ship, the largest of its kind in the world.
Current short-term and long-term security trends appear likely to exacerbate tensions over territorial disputes in the South China Sea. The Philippines continues to engage in a war of words with China, while China continues to invest in Second Thomas Reef by stationing warships in the area. Differences in approach between the Philippines and Malaysia make it unlikely the four claimant states can reach a common position for ASEAN to endorse. ASEAN itself appears unable to reach a consensus that Chinese fishing bans in the South China Sea, coupled with the possible imposition of a Chinese ADIZ, are security issues affecting the whole of Southeast Asia.
China is continuing its build-up and modernization of both PLAN warships and paramilitary Coast Guard vessels. The former continue to conduct military exercises in areas where China’s nine-dash line overlaps with the Exclusive Economic Zones of claimant states. The latter are increasing in size thus enabling them to patrol and remain on station in the South China Sea for longer periods.
The current proactive U.S. challenge to China’s nine-dash line claim and opposition to any ADIZ in the South China Sea is likely to meet Chinese political, diplomatic and possibly military resistance in the form of challenges in contested waters. In the long-term, China’s naval modernization and expansion will result in the relative decline of U.S. naval primacy in the Western Pacific.
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http://thediplomat.com/2014/
China’s Academic Battle for the South China Sea
Beijing supports increased research on South China Sea issues as part of a soft power push for control.Shannon TiezziFebruary 25, 2014
China’s increased military and maritime surveillance activities in the South China Sea have been well-documented, both by foreign and Chinese media outlets. But China’s push to assert its claims over islands within the South China Sea is not simply unfolding in the military realm — the increased naval activities are backed by a renewed focus within the academic community.
A recent article in China Daily highlighted one such organization, the Collaborative Innovation Center for South China Sea Studies (CICSCSS), based at Nanjing University. The Center was established in 2012 as one of 14 national research projects prioritized by the central government. According to Hong Yinxing, the chairman of the board for the center as well as the Party chief for Nanjing University, the center was designed to promote comprehensive study of maritime issues in the region, crossing barriers between academic departments, the military, and other government agencies. “The center will become a high-end think tank for South China Sea policymaking, a dialogue platform for international communication, and a training center for outstanding talents on maritime affairs,” Hong told China Daily.
Nanjing University is not alone in promoting study on South China Sea issues. The National Institute for South China Sea Studies (NISCSS), located in Hainan province, is affiliated with China’s Foreign Ministry and State Oceanic Administration. Founded in 1996, the institute has been upgraded and expanded in the past decade to reflect China’s growing will and ability to promote its claims in the South China Sea. NISCSS’s areas of interest include the history and geography of the South China Sea (with a special focus on sovereignty), the area’s geopolitics (including neighboring countries’ South China Sea policies), and the applicability of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea to the region’s territorial disputes. The NISCSS recently recommended that Taiwan and China work together on research projects to bolster their sovereignty claims in the South China Sea.
China’s elite foreign policy think tanks are also carrying out their own research. The China Institute of International Studies is currently sponsoring a project on how China should respond to international arbitration over the South China Sea. Experts from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences routinely appear in media articles to present academic arguments for China’s sovereignty over and actions near the South China Sea islands. Plus, as maritime issues grow in regional importance, more general articles on subjects from Asia-Pacific regional security to U.S.-China relations have to include research and/or policy recommendations on handling the sovereignty disputes.
The result has been a government-sponsored boom in South China Sea issues in China’s academic and policymaking community. In addition to publishing research specifically designed to back China’s historical claims, think tanks specializing on the South China Sea have a broader goal. The China Daily article pointed out a “national shortage of qualified maritime-affairs personnel skilled in international dialogue and cooperation.” Research organizations like CICSCSS and NISCSS are important training grounds for Chinese experts who will not only help Beijing formulate South China Sea policy, but will also be tasked with arguing China’s maritime claims internationally. Think of it as a soft-power push for control of the South China Sea. Beijing wants to have scholars trained not just in the history of China’s activity in the South China Sea, but in maritime law, foreign policy, and military affairs.
To date, China’s soft power campaigns to promote its territorial claims have been clumsy. In 2012, for example, the state run China Daily took out a two-page advertisement in the New York Times and Washington Post with a headline proclaiming “Diaoyu Islands Belong to China.” Such heavy-handed tactics are far more likely to backfire than to convince American audiences.
The growth of Chinese think tanks specializing on South China Sea issues hints at a more sophisticated long-term strategy. The goal is to have Chinese experts who can argue for China’s claims based not only on history, but on international law. As China’s academics hit the books to present arguments for de jure sovereignty, the Chinese military and Coast Guard will continue their stepped-up patrols of the region to assert de facto control of disputed areas. Anyone arguing that the military apparatus is acting of its own accord is ignoring the parallel increase in China’s academic battles. Beijing is implementing a multi-pronged strategy to assert its claims to the South China Sea, and academia is one of the battlegrounds.
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http://www.philstar.comheadlines/2014/02/25/1294260/
US committed to defense pact with Phl
By Marichu Villanueva (The Philippine Star) | Updated February 25, 2014 -
MANILA, Philippines - The United States is committed to fulfill its obligations under the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with the Philippines even as there is full support for diplomatic resolution of territorial disputes with China and other claimant countries in the South China Sea.
Adm. Harry Harris Jr., commander of the US Pacific Fleet, reiterated this commitment yesterday as he met with Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief Gen. Emmanuel Bautista and Philippine Navy commander Jose Luis Alano.
The reiteration of US commitment came a few days after Adm. Jonathan Greenert, naval operations chief of the US Navy, made a statement that stirred some controversy. Greenert was quoted as telling a military academic discussion about the 1951 MDT being implemented in case of Chinese aggression in the contested Pagasa islands in the West Philippine Sea.
“Greenert reiterated the strength of the Mutual Defense Treaty. He reaffirmed the US commitment to the Philippines with the Mutual Defense Treaty and I agree with that completely,” Harris stressed, quickly adding: “And I want to underscore the US-Philippine treaty obligations and we live up to that obligation.”
Harris arrived in Manila Sunday night. He met yesterday with Philippine military officials before he left last night.
In an exclusive interview with The STAR, Harris underscored the important role that the Philippines plays in Asia.
“What makes the Philippines, from our perspective, is it’s a full treaty partner,” Harris pointed out.
Currently, he cited, the US only has seven bilateral treaties worldwide and one of them is the MDT with the Philippines. “But the Philippines is a leader in Asia,” he added.
Harris also reiterated there is no talk about renewing the abrogated Philippine-US military bases agreement in the ongoing discussions for rotational visits by US forces.
“We are not going to base anything in the Philippines. This is about access and use of Philippine facilities in order to work together,” he stressed. “Whatever the Philippine government wants US to have - this is part of the agreement that is being negotiated.”
President Aquino earlier disclosed the Philippines is “very close” to completing an agreement to boost the number of US troops allowed into the country at a time of growing tension over territorial disputes with China.
“We applaud the recent action of the Philippine government to moderate Chinese behavior for international venues as a means in resolving dispute… This is a mark of a mature nation to resolve this dispute diplomatically and not with coercion but other peaceful means,” Harris stressed.
He was referring to the international arbitration court at the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) where the Philippines has taken its territorial dispute with Beijing on the South China Sea.
On the part of the US, Harris said continuing military-to-military talks with Chinese officials are also being done. He cited the talks of US Army chief of staff Gen. Raymond Odierno, who met with his Chinese counterpart Lt. Gen. Wang Ninga a few days ago in Beijing, as well as the recent visit to China by US vice chief of operations Adm. Mark Fergusson, who met with Adm. Wu Sheng-li, chief of China Navy.
“I am hoping that we continue to have a strong military to military relationship with China over the next years, with openness and not shrouded with opaqueness,” Harris said.
“On the other hand, we want to have strong and positive relationship with China. Gen. Odierno’s visit to Chiba is indicative of that,” the admiral pointed out.
The US Pacific Commander admitted, however, the US views with concern the lack of transparency of China, especially with its recent unilateral decision to impose the controversial air defense identification zone (ADIZ).
When he assumed his post last October, Harris said there was no change in their operations even after China announced the ADIZ.
“As far as the US Navy operations go, we are conducting our operations at sea and in the air through and in the so-called Chinese identification zone without respect for the zone itself. Business as before,” he declared. – With Pia Lee Brago.
(NTB St)
